OUTCOMES
A prioritised list of critical assumptions to be tested based on their importance, your confidence in their validity, as well as the cost and time it may take to test them.
USING THE TOOL
When prototyping, it is important to build something that helps you answer critical questions about a concept in order to reduce risk of failure. These questions are often asking if an assumption is correct. This tool helps you to identify which assumptions are most critical to the success of your concept.
Identify Assumptions: Identify all the assumptions you are making that the concept is reliant on, arranging them into the categories of technological feasibility, economic viability and market desirability (making sure you have a good spread).
Assess Criticality: Arrange the assumptions based on how critical they are to success and how confident you are of their validity.
Prioritise: Prioritise those in which you have the lowest confidence and that are highly important. These are the critical assumptions because they pose the highest risk. Then, out of those assumptions, select those that can be tested the most quickly and cheaply to start experimenting.
good sequence
Concept Capture > Critical Assumptions > Experiment Map
Tips
Before reviewing which assumptions are cheapest and quickest to test, it may help to ideate various testing methodologies
Ideally work with a group of diverse collaborators
Work with post-its of different colours for each category of assumption (market, technology, economy), for clarity in the latter stages
Also remember to consider the systemic and political risks of a concept as you prioritise
